Picks priced against the sharpest market, with the vig removed. Graded against the close.
- The sharp number first. Every price is checked against the sharpest market (Circa in Las Vegas, or Pinnacle when Circa has no price), with the vig taken out.
- The best price in Tennessee. We shop seven legal Tennessee books before a pick goes out, and name the book, the price and the time.
- Sized like it's real money. Half a unit to two units. Never more than five units in a day.
- Every result, in public. Wins and losses, next to the closing line. Nothing is ever deleted.
The board
- Nights priced
- 3
- Plays made
- 0
- Passes
- 3
- Best edge seen
- +1.4
Latest board · Wed Oct 28, 2026 · 4:42 PM CT
No play. We passed.
- Flames +1.5 at Oilers · -150 BetMGM-0.4
Edge is how far a price beats the sharp market's fair price, in percentage points. Tonight's board posts on X at about 5 PM CT. A pass is posted with its numbers, the same as a play.
The record
| Date | Pick | Price @ time (CT) | Close | Result |
|---|
Record starts Mon Oct 26, 2026.
No play has cleared the bar yet. When one does, it goes here before the game: the book, the price and the time. The result and the closing line are added after it ends.
- Plays
- 0
- Record
- 0–0
- Units
- 0.0
- Avg CLV
- —
How a pick is made
The baseline. The sharpest market (Circa in Las Vegas, or Pinnacle when Circa has no price), with the vig removed. A pick exists only where a price you can actually bet beats that number, for a reason we state.
Shop, then size. We check the books for the best price on the same number. Bigger edge, bigger bet: half a unit to two units, never more than two on one game or five in a day. When nothing on the board clears our bar, there is no bet. We post the pass and the numbers.
Graded by the close. Wins and losses are noise over a month. Beating the closing line is the measure that holds up, so it is posted next to every result.
Units. One unit is the same flat stake on every play. Wins and losses are figured at the price posted with the pick, not the closing price.
Founders
$29 a month, locked for life. First 50 people.
Paid membership opens after 50 graded plays, and only if the picks have beaten the closing line on average. It will be $49 a month. The first 50 people on this list pay $29 a month for as long as they stay, and get the full card: the thesis behind each pick, the worst price still worth playing, unit size, and the members' morning email before the board posts publicly.
- Nothing is charged now. Joining the list is a reservation, not a purchase.
- You will see the record before you pay. If it is not worth $29, do not pay.
- Cancel any time. Full refund inside seven days of the first charge.
One confirmation email, then the Monday email. The founders offer comes to this list first.
Questions
Is Linemetry a sportsbook?
No. Linemetry publishes research and a public record. It takes no bets and holds no money. Every bet is your own decision, placed with a licensed book where sports betting is legal.
What does "graded against the close" mean?
The closing line is the market's final price before the game starts, and it is the hardest number to beat. If our price is better than the close, the pick was good no matter how one game landed. We post that number next to every result.
How many picks a day?
Up to three, and only when the price clears our bar. When nothing does, we post a pass with the closest sides and their numbers. Each play shows the book, the price, the time we found it and the size in units.
Why so many passes?
Most nights the market is right. Sportsbooks follow the sharp number closely, so a price that beats it by a full point is rare. Betting anyway means paying the house its cut on a coin flip. We post the pass and the closest numbers instead.
Which books do you shop?
Seven books licensed in Tennessee: BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel, DraftKings, Hard Rock Bet, Bally Bet and theScore Bet. The fair price comes from Circa in Las Vegas, or Pinnacle when Circa has no price, with the vig removed.
Do you ever delete a losing pick?
No. Every pick since the record started on Oct 26, 2026 stays on this page, win or lose.
What does it cost?
Free while the record builds. Paid membership opens after 50 graded plays, and only if the picks have beaten the closing line on average. It will be $49 a month, and the first 50 people on the founders list pay $29 a month for as long as they stay.
The Monday email
One email a week with the record: the week's picks, results, units and closing-line value. Nothing else, and nothing on game days.
Get the Monday email free · 21+You will get one confirmation email first. Unsubscribe any time.